Outlet Trust Scoring

What the trust score represents

The trust score is a number between 0% and 100% assigned to each monitored outlet. It reflects how reliable that outlet has been as a source of directional intelligence over time. A trust score of 92% means that outlet's signals have historically aligned with subsequent market developments at a high rate.

How trust scores are used

Trust scores serve three functions in The Wire's analytical pipeline:

1. Convergence weighting. When detecting convergence, the system weights high-trust outlets more heavily. Three outlets converging with trust scores of 90%+ is a stronger signal than three outlets converging with scores of 60%.

2. DEFCON computation. The aggregate threat level incorporates trust-weighted signals. A bearish call from a 95% trust outlet moves the DEFCON needle more than the same call from a 60% trust outlet.

3. Outlier evaluation. When one outlet diverges sharply from the consensus, the trust score helps determine whether that divergence is informative (a high-trust outlet seeing something others are missing) or noise.

What trust scores are not

Trust scores are not editorial ratings of journalistic quality. They measure one thing: how often that outlet's directional signals have aligned with what actually happened in the market.

A tabloid-style outlet that happens to have accurate directional instincts will carry a higher trust score than a prestigious publication that consistently misreads market direction.

Transparency

Trust scores are displayed alongside every outlet in a Wire scan report. You can see exactly how much weight each source carries and make your own judgment.